CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has publicly acknowledged that he misread the Bitcoin market cycle, just days after BTC surged past the $100,000 mark. In a candid post on X, Ju apologized to his followers for prematurely declaring the end of the bull run back in March 2025.
“I apologize for the incorrect prediction. I’ll strive to provide higher-quality analyses going forward,” Ju wrote.
Bitcoin’s unexpected comeback gained momentum on May 8, shortly after President Trump announced a new trade deal with the U.K., propelling BTC back to six-figure territory.
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A Changing Market: ETFs, Institutions, and New Liquidity
Ju admitted that the traditional bull-bear models based on whale and retail behavior no longer reflect the current market environment. Instead, the market now includes ETFs, institutional players, and even government entities.
“The Bitcoin market has become much more diverse. It’s no longer just whales and retail. MicroStrategy, ETFs, institutional investors, and even governments are actively involved,” he noted.
Because of this shift, Ju believes it’s time to abandon the old framework of “profit-taking cycles” as the primary lens for measuring sentiment.
Traditionally, these cycles involve whales selling during peak prices, triggering widespread sell-offs. But Ju argues that new liquidity from institutions and ETFs is starting to dilute the impact of whale movements.
“Instead of worrying about old whales selling, it’s more important to monitor how much fresh liquidity is entering through institutional channels,” he added.
Market Outlook: Transitional, Not Fully Bullish
At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $102,773, up over 3% in the past 24 hours, marking its first move above $100K since February. However, daily trading volume has dropped more than 30%, currently sitting at $51 billion.
Despite the bullish price action, Ju maintains a measured tone, describing the market as being in a “transitional phase”—neither clearly bullish nor bearish.
“Yes, the price is extremely bullish right now, but I’m talking about the profit-taking cycle,” he clarified.
A Look Back: Ju’s March Forecast Falls Short
In March 2025, Ju predicted that Bitcoin would experience six to twelve months of bearish or sideways price action. He supported his call with historical profit-loss index cycles dating back to 2014.
The forecast seemed to hold at first. BTC fell below $75,000 shortly after Trump introduced his Liberation Day tariffs, shaking investor confidence. But the market has since rebounded sharply, proving Ju’s call premature.
Final Thoughts
While Ju acknowledges he got the timing wrong, he also emphasises that on-chain data remains essential for long-term market analysis. He’s now adapting his approach to account for a more institutionally driven Bitcoin landscape.
Even seasoned analysts must evolve in a maturing market with new liquidity dynamics, and Ju’s public course correction reflects just that.
