Speculation about XRP reaching $1,200 has sparked debates among crypto enthusiasts, but a major limitation could prevent such a rally. A detailed analysis by crypto commentators highlights why replicating Bitcoin’s meteoric rise between 2011 and 2013 may not be feasible for XRP.
XRP’s Recent Price Surge Fuels Optimism
XRP has experienced a remarkable upward trend since the U.S. elections in November 2024, which saw pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump secure victory. At the time of the elections, XRP traded at $0.5035. Since then, its price has surged 336% to $2.21, outperforming many top-tier cryptocurrencies.
This price movement has reignited optimism among investors, with some forecasting ambitious future price targets ranging from $27 to $100. A recent commentary by market analyst Steph even proposed the possibility of XRP reaching $1,200, drawing comparisons to Bitcoin’s historic rally from late 2011 to 2013.
Bitcoin’s Historical Performance as a Benchmark
Steph referenced Bitcoin’s dramatic price increase during its early years as a potential blueprint for XRP. Bitcoin, which traded at $2 in November 2011, climbed to $16 by August 2012, marking a 700% gain. Despite a brief correction, it surged further to $259 in April 2013, representing a 12,850% gain.
By November 2013, Bitcoin reached $1,200, achieving an overall increase of nearly 59,900% within two years. Steph pointed out that XRP has demonstrated substantial growth in the past, particularly during the 2017/2018 bull run, when it surged from $0.005 to $3.31.
Supply Constraints Pose a Major Challenge
However, Nathan Goldstein, a real estate investor and Bitcoin advocate, responded by outlining key differences between XRP and Bitcoin. He emphasized that XRP’s significantly larger supply is a critical limitation.
XRP has a maximum supply of 100 billion tokens, with 57.25 billion currently in circulation. If XRP were to reach $1,200 per token, its fully diluted market capitalization would skyrocket to $120 trillion.
Market Cap and Global Money Supply Comparison
Goldstein highlighted that XRP’s potential market cap at $1,200 per token would exceed the global M2 money supply, which was approximately $104 trillion as of Q2 2024. This would make XRP’s fully diluted market cap 15% larger than all the money circulating in the world.
Even if only the circulating supply is considered, XRP’s market cap at $1,200 would total $68.7 trillion, equivalent to 66% of the global money supply. By contrast, Bitcoin’s market cap at its $1,200 peak in 2013 was just $14.4 billion, a fraction of global currency at the time.
Limitations Preventing $1,200 for XRP
While XRP’s potential for growth remains significant, achieving a $1,200 price appears implausible under current conditions. Factors such as its large supply and the constraints of global money supply present significant challenges.
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Although historical comparisons to Bitcoin’s early rally are intriguing, the unique circumstances surrounding XRP must be acknowledged, making such a monumental price target unlikely in the foreseeable future.
